No matter your feelings about the 2008 election, most people agree that change is in the air. How will the election effect the job market and the economic climate? Nothing will change immediately, however there are some fairly significant developments to look out for after the inauguration.
The Employee Free Choice Act
A change in the laws surrounding union elections, long sought by the AFL-CIO, the Employee Free Choice Act is expected to move much closer to passage when the new congress begins their session this February. With 56 guaranteed democratic seats in the senate and a few more still up for contention, the Democratic party will come close enough to a fillibuster-proof majority to make passage nearly a done deal.
How will the Employee Free Choice Act effect American workers?
- It will allow the certification of a union if a simple majority of workers sign a card, rather than the lengthy and expensive election process in place now.
- It will create a mediation and binding arbitration process for first contract disputes. Currently, if an employer and a union cannot reach an agreement on a first contract within one year, the union will lose certification and have to start over with an election. Under the new process, disputed contracts will move into the arbitration process within a matter of months, creating an incentive for employers to be cooperative.
- It will significantly stiffen the penalties the National Labor Relations Board can place on employers who engage in illegal retribution, such as firing employees for union organizing.
Not everyone thinks these changes will be positive. Some business interests strongly oppose the law, fearing that it will make the American marketplace less globally competitive and take away the right to a secret ballot. Supporters of the act counter that workers may still elect to undergo the longer NLRB election process if 30% or more of the employees request it.
Stricter EPA Standards and Other Auto Maker Issues
President Elect Obama must wait for legislative action to impose most of his agenda. Some things, however, can be changed through the sweep of a presidential pen. President Bush issued many “executive orders” during his time in office. These are actions by the executive branch that require no deliberative process. One such Bush administration order prevented the state of California from requiring stricter mileage and emissions standards. Given the size of the California market, if the state is able to impose new regulations the auto industry will be scrambling to change their product. This could ultimately have a positive effect on an industry reeling from declining sales of SUVs, but will likely create turmoil in the short term.
Speaking of turmoil, auto makers are asking for their own “bail out” package. Just days after the election, executives are asking the not yet sworn in administration to provide the industry some relief. Already hurting, the industry is expected to close more plants and lay off more workers in the next few months. If aid does come, it may bring with it raised expectations (or actual legislation) for fuel efficient vehicles.
Regardless of any direct investment in the auto industry, the Obama administration is expected to develop incentives for research and development into green technologies, including hybrids and other fuel efficient vehicles.
Job Creation Programs
Prior to the October economic meltdown, Barack Obama promised a 50 billion dollar job creation and retention program, designed to fix our ailing infrastructure and employ as many workers as possible in the process. The program would aim to save 1 million jobs.
Getting there could prove very difficult, however. Despite a democratic majority in both houses of congress, 50 billion dollars is a steep price tag and the program is likely to face challenges from congress members answering to fiscally conservative constituents at home. With a 700 billion dollar bailout for the banking industry and the auto makers seeking their own help, job seekers will have to get in line. If the program does go into place in any recognizable fashion, the job outlook for construction and education workers could improve dramatically.
Want to work with the new administration? Obama and Biden are now hiring non-career (politically affiliated) workers through their website, change.gov. Jobs are going fast.
Tags: 2008, elections, free choice act, trends, unions